PredictiveRoadmap for Restaurants

The Revenue Review

A full-service restaurant with a bar · one location · Southern California
SPECIMEN — THIS IS NOT A REAL RESTAURANT. The restaurant is invented and every figure in it is made up to show the method. What is real is the format, the standard of evidence, and the arithmetic discipline: every number says where it came from, and the sums are shown. Your report carries your own numbers, read to us from your own records, and your own dates.

What we found

On the call, you read us figures from your own records across seven areas: menu, labor, food purchasing, equipment, your POS and card processing, your books, and marketing. We never took a copy of anything. You get everything back, including what is fine, so you know where not to spend time or money.

The three biggest, costed against your own figures, come to $69,531 a year. Every figure is labelled:

Measured a figure you read us from your own records   Observed something we checked that you can re-check yourself   Estimated uses an assumption, and the assumption is stated

  1. Paid hours nobody scheduled — $29,515 a year Measured
  2. Four dishes whose cost rose while the price did not — $24,728 a year Measured
  3. Overtime landing on the same four people — $15,288 a year Measured
  4. Credits your supplier agreed to and never paid — $3,120 in 13 weeks Measured
  5. Your card processing costs more than the headline rate Measured
  6. Voids and comps cluster on three logins Measured
  7. Two dishes keep less on the delivery app than in your dining room Measured
  8. Your walk-in's electricity has climbed while sales have not Measured
  9. Nobody sees prime cost until six weeks after the month Measured
  10. Your Google listing says you close before you do Observed
  11. Nine unanswered reviews, three of them negative Observed

Do this first: the seven-day list

If you read nothing else, do these three.

  1. Check the ten-minute one yourself. Pull last Friday's punch report and last Friday's schedule. Put them side by side. Count the minutes before and after each shift. That is Finding 1, and it is on your screen right now.
  2. Re-cost the four dishes The step-by-step is in your report.
  3. Send your supplier rep the list of eleven open credits The step-by-step is in your report.

The three biggest

1 · Paid hours nobody scheduled

$29,515 a year Measured
What we found
You read us two figures from your labor report for the last eight weeks: hours scheduled and hours paid. Paid was 211.2 hours more than scheduled. Two figures cannot tell us whether that is spread across everyone or sits with a few people. Your punch report will show you.
The arithmetic
Hours paid − hours scheduled, last 8 weeks (your labor report) = 211.2 hours 211.2 ÷ 8 = 26.4 hours a week 26.4 × $21.50 average hourly rate (your payroll) × 52 = $29,515 a year
The suggestion
Most POS and time-clock systems can stop anyone clocking in more than a few minutes before their shift without a manager's approval. Turn that on. For clock-outs, the closing manager signs off the last punches each night.
How you know it worked
Read the same two figures for the four weeks after the change. The gap should be a small fraction of what it is now.
See a professional: how you change clock-in rules, and how you handle time that was actually worked, are employment-law questions in California. Talk to a California employment attorney before you change policy. We show the dollar pattern only.

2 · Four dishes whose cost rose while the price did not

$24,728 a year Measured
What we found
On the call, your kitchen gave us portion weights for your fifteen best sellers, and you read us the ingredient prices from this week's invoices and from invoices around the time the menu was last priced. We did the costing. Four of them now cost noticeably more to plate than when the menu was last priced.
The arithmetic
DishPriceCost thenNowPer weekA year
Braised short rib$34$9.40$12.1558$8,294
Burger$18$4.60$5.70121$6,921
Fish tacos$19$4.10$5.3594$6,110
Chopped salad with chicken$17$3.20$4.0577$3,403
Total$24,728
Each line: (plate cost now − plate cost then) × sold per week (your POS product mix) × 52 Short rib: $2.75 × 58 × 52 = $8,294
The suggestion
In your report: the suggestion, written out step by step, and how to check it worked.

3 · Overtime landing on the same four people

$15,288 a year Measured
What we found
From your payroll registers for the last eight weeks, you read us overtime hours by person: 196 in total, and four people account for all of it. You told us other staff in the same roles were under 32 hours in those weeks.
The arithmetic
196 overtime hours ÷ 8 weeks = 24.5 hours a week Overtime premium = half the base rate: $24.00 × 0.5 = $12.00 an hour 24.5 × $12.00 × 52 = $15,288 a year
This counts only the premium, the part you pay above straight time. The hours themselves still have to be worked by somebody.
The suggestion
In your report: the suggestion, written out step by step, and how to check it worked.
See a professional: California overtime and scheduling rules are strict. Check any schedule change with a California employment attorney. We show the dollar pattern only.

The rest of what we found

These sit below the three above because of what they will pay back, not because they are less real.

4 · Credits your supplier agreed to and never paid

Measured
What we found
From your receiving notes, you read us eleven shorts and substitutions over thirteen weeks that your rep agreed to credit. None of them appears as a credit on your statements: $3,120 in total.
The suggestion
In your report: the suggestion, written out step by step, and how to check it worked.
Why there is no yearly figure
Thirteen weeks is not enough to say the pattern holds all year, so we have not multiplied it.

5 · Your card processing costs more than the headline rate

Measured
What we found
From your last three processor statements, you read us total fees of $14,190 on $462,000 of card sales. We worked out an effective rate of 3.07%, against the 2.6% on your contract.
Why there is no yearly saving
What you could save depends on the quotes you get back, and we have none yet.
The suggestion
In your report: the suggestion, written out step by step, and how to check it worked.
See a professional: surcharging and cash-discount programs are regulated in California. Ask before you add one.

6 · Voids and comps cluster on three logins

Measured
What we found
From the void report you read us: three of your nineteen POS logins account for more than half of all voids after a check was printed.
What this is not
It is not proof of anything. There are ordinary explanations, such as the three people who close most nights. It is a pattern worth one conversation.
The suggestion
In your report: the suggestion, written out step by step, and how to check it worked.
See a professional: never accuse an employee on a pattern alone. If you suspect theft, talk to your CPA or an employment attorney first.

7 · Two dishes keep less on the delivery app than in your dining room

Measured
What we found
Using the commission and fees you read us from your delivery statements, the short rib and the fish tacos keep less an order on the app than the same dish keeps in your dining room. On food cost alone; labor per plate is not counted, so the real gap is not smaller than this.
The suggestion
In your report: the suggestion, written out step by step, and how to check it worked.

8 · Your walk-in's electricity has climbed while sales have not

Measured
What we found
The electric bills you read us for the same three summer months are up year on year, while your sales for those months are flat. The walk-in cooler is the oldest large unit on your equipment list.
The suggestion
In your report: the suggestion, written out step by step, and how to check it worked.
See a professional: refrigeration, gas and electrical work is licensed work. Use a licensed technician.

9 · Nobody sees prime cost until six weeks after the month

Measured
What we found
Your books close about six weeks after month end, so food cost plus labor is only ever seen long after it can be changed.
The suggestion
In your report: the suggestion, written out step by step, and how to check it worked.
See a professional: anything that touches tax, sales tax or tip reporting goes to your CPA.

10 · Your Google listing says you close before you do

Observed
What we found
Your listing shows you closing at 9pm on Fridays and Saturdays. Your own menu and website say 10pm.
The suggestion
In your report: the suggestion, written out step by step, and how to check it worked.

11 · Nine unanswered reviews, three of them negative

Observed
What we found
Of your last twenty reviews, nine have no reply, including three of one or two stars.
The suggestion
In your report: the suggestion, written out step by step, and how to check it worked.

Your 90-day order of work

In the order we would do it: what pays back fastest and costs least comes first. Every item is a suggestion. You decide what happens, and when.

Days 1–7 · stop the leaks you can see this week

  1. Check Finding 1 yourself. Last Friday’s punch report beside last Friday’s schedule. You’ll know: you can see the minutes before and after each shift.
  2. Re-cost the four dishes (Finding 2) and decide: a new price, a new portion, or a new supplier. You’ll know: each dish has a plate cost dated this week.
  3. Send your supplier rep the eleven open credits (Finding 4). You’ll know: a written reply, and the credits on your next statement.
  4. Fix your Google hours (Finding 10). A ten-minute job. You’ll know: search your own name on a phone and see 10pm on Fridays and Saturdays.

Days 8–30 · change the settings that let it happen

  1. Early clock-ins need a manager’s OK (Finding 1). You’ll know: the gap between hours paid and hours scheduled shrinks in your next labor report.
  2. Spread the overtime (Finding 3) across the people in the same roles who are under 32 hours. You’ll know: overtime hours by person, four weeks on.
  3. Re-price or pull the two dishes that keep less on delivery (Finding 7). You’ll know: each delivery dish keeps at least what it keeps in your dining room, after commission and packaging.
  4. Answer the nine reviews (Finding 11), the three negative ones first. You’ll know: no review in the last twenty without a reply.
See a professional: clock-in rules, overtime and scheduling are employment-law questions in California. Talk to a California employment attorney before you change policy.

Days 31–60 · get two quotes, and one number every week

  1. Two card-processing quotes (Finding 5), compared on the effective rate, not the headline one. You’ll know: your statement’s total fees ÷ card sales, next month.
  2. One weekly prime-cost number (Finding 9): food plus labor, every Monday, not six weeks after month end. You’ll know: four Mondays, four numbers.
  3. A licensed technician looks at the walk-in (Finding 8). You’ll know: a written service report, and next summer’s bills against this summer’s.
See a professional: surcharging and cash-discount programs are regulated in California; anything touching tax, sales tax or tip reporting goes to your CPA; refrigeration and electrical work is licensed work.

Days 61–90 · check it held, and fix what didn’t

  1. Read the same figures again for Findings 1, 2, 3 and 7: hours paid against scheduled, plate costs, overtime by person, delivery margins. You’ll know: each one against the number in this report.
  2. Voids and comps (Finding 6): look at the same report again. If the pattern is still there, one conversation.
  3. Anything that didn’t move goes back to the top of this list.
See a professional: never accuse anyone on a pattern alone. If you suspect theft, talk to your CPA or an employment attorney first.

This is an order of work, not a forecast. It does not promise what you will earn. It tells you what to do first, and how to check each step yourself.

What we checked and found fine

  • Bar pour cost is in line with your own target, on the figures you read us. Nothing to do.
  • Insurance. The class codes you read us from your declarations pages match the business you run.

How to read this report

Everything in it is a suggestion. It comes from the figures you gave us, from systems that have worked in other restaurants, and from people we know. Every restaurant is different, and nothing here is a promise about what you will earn.

Where a finding touches employment law, tax, licensed equipment work, or a contract, we say so and point you to the right professional. We report what the numbers show. We do not give legal, tax, accounting or financial advice, and we are not CPAs, attorneys or financial advisors.

This report is not a valuation. We do not say what the restaurant is worth or what it should sell or buy for; that is for a broker and your accountant.